I was just wondering earlier on Twitter if it’d be possible for a tool like Ahrefs or SEMrush to take my list of keywords and give me a ~guestimate of just how much traffic you could reasonably expect from them.
Here’s A Google Spreadsheet That Estimates Organic Traffic Potential
So while the new 2.0 Keywords tool from Ahrefs does do a single keyword traffic estimate of traffic it’s not a bulk or list tool (yet!) I have created a spreadsheet populated with real data for Nashville dentistry with some simple formulas that you can duplicate and then adjust & apply to your own keyword list. ** I created this for some client research but realized it might be cool to put it out there for others to utilize the idea.
Here Are My Assumptions About Clicks
I was watching an Ahrefs video on keyword research and he shared their assumption about SERP click behavior: They estimate 50% of est. traffic volume per keyword flows to the top 3 ranking domains. I really forget what they sourced that from…maybe they can comment on the post with their source… ANYWHO!
So I took that assumption a little further and estimated:
- #1 would get about half of overall volume so that’s 25% of traffic
- #2-3 would get about half each of that half so that’s 15% of traffic
- #3-10 would get 50% of traffic divided by the 7 rankings
- #11 and below can assume 0 traffic
My Assumption About a REASONABLE expectation
No. You don’t get to rank #1 across the board. It’s NOT reasonable to expect out of most SEO campaigns.
So let’s paint a rosy, but maybe reasonable picture:
Let’s say that 25% of your keywords get to #1, 50 are #2-3 and 25% are #3-6
If you are more of a pessimist, or the client isn’t offering that much budget or it’s a rough neighborhood for competition then revise those down on the spreadsheet.
- For 25 Nashville dentist keywords the estimate volume was: 2,540 per month
- Using my assumptions above I estimate a reasonable ownage of the SERP would net: 458 Organic sessions per month, not including BRAND or LONGTAIL keywords.
- Multiply that organic traffic by your site’s Organic Conversion rate (if you don’t have access to Google Analytics or have goals configured then you can assume between 2.5% and 5%) to get your est. # of leads. 22 Leads
- Multiply your est. leads by your estimated Close rate on leads (differs wildly for every niche, I just used 50% arbitrarily) 11 clients
- Multiply the number of leads by the average Revenue per new client/sale (I assumed $1000) and BOOM You have the estimated organic revenue increase from a “REASONABLE” result of an SEO campaign. $11,000